ONI INSIGHT AUGUST 2025

The August 2025 economic update shows a fragile recovery marked by mixed signals: U.S. job growth slowed sharply while unemployment inched higher, even as GDP rebounded 3% in the second quarter, boosted more by tariff-driven trade shifts than by underlying strength. Key industries show strain, with manufacturing contracting and architecture billings still weak, though steel output and aluminum prices remain resilient amid global supply pressures. Meanwhile, escalating tariffs from President Trump on dozens of countries and ongoing trade disputes with China, Mexico, and the EU add uncertainty, raising the risk of recession despite temporary gains in select sectors